mercoledì 19 Febbraio 2025

Two wars narrated very badly

Ukraine and Lebanon

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Global clowns

Note dalla Provenza

Colored

Let’s return for a moment to the war in Europe.

Both sides are eager to see what Trump will do because they cannot continue their efforts for ever. The Russians have the imperative to appear victorious by March to sit at the negotiating table without giving up anything, and for this reason, they will double the war effort but more importantly they will quadruple the psychological conditioning effort. 

They never really have anything to fear from the Americans, their long-time allies, but it’s different when there’s a Democratic Administration, always dedicated to Yalta and the complicity of the Cold War, and another when the Republicans are in charge, who don’t give them much.

It’s worth noting that during Trump‘s four years, the Russians had basically stopped threatening Ukraine. But now there is a different Administration, one that might not really be considered truly Republican, and it is still unclear how it will act. In seven months in the Donbass, the Russians have made a 13-kilometer progress in a small strip of land.

 A war is not necessarily won or lost based on the ground gained; just think of the collapses, first of Russia and then the Central Powers, in 1917 and 1918. This war is being fought, on both sides, through the material and moral exhaustion of the enemy. 

Two months ago Manturov, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, reported a problematic situation because, despite the recruitment of 600,000 workers in the military-industrial sector. In his view, it will take 3 or 4 years to rebuild the reserves destroyed by the Ukrainians, who, in the meantime, continue to destroy them. The Russians do the same, but the Ukrainian and European machinery is faster in rebuilding. 

The Ukrainian advance into Russia in the Kharkov region had no territorial objectives but rather psychological and tactical ones. In fact, the soldiers from Kiev managed to target the supply routes for the troops in the Donbass, forcing Moscow to take more winding routes and leading to infinitely longer delivery times. Moscow and Kiev are competing in the destruction of infrastructures, but this is a game where Russia is weaker because it is less effective in rebuilding. 

Collapse?

What could lead to Ukraine’s collapse is, in the event, the lack of men to send to the front compared to the Russians. However, the Russians have an appalling logistical situation, and according to some military analysts, sanctions have deprived them of essential components for the proper functioning of their artillery—i.e., their strongest weapon—which could be reduced in volume and accuracy within the next seven or eight months.

Whatever happens, few observers believe that either Kiev or Moscow will be able to continue the war beyond the fall of 2025. And I recall the British prophecy the day after the Russian invasion: the war will last three years!

It remains to see how it will end, whether with the total collapse of one of the two enemies — and determining who is more likely to collapse can only be a prejudice based on ignorance — or with a partition. 

War propaganda has less and less to do with the war itself.

Amongst what is unknown, what is misunderstood, and what is kept silent, it is always misleading. 

In the fourteenth month of Netanyahu’s ethnic cleansing campaign, the news was given on Tuesday of a “ceasefire reached between Israel and Hezbollah.” This ceasefire contains Tel Aviv’s commitment to withdraw troops from South Lebanon within two months and effectively prevents the annexation of the West Bank. For Tel Aviv, it is an immediate checkmate. 

Media did not cover the war campaign, which, on the ground, in the face of organized forces, saw the Israelis once again lose the fight. 

We do not know whether the opposing propaganda, which speaks of as many as 60 tanks destroyed, can be taken seriously. But even if we scale it down by a lot, the figure is crystal clear. The Israelis excel in areas like satellite technology and intelligence (so let’s not be fooledabout October 7, 2023), but they have never been the strongest in open field combat. 

The bottom line of the story:

We cannot trust media information that portrays as invincible those who are not. Whether it’s Israel or Russia, it doesn’t matter. These superficial simplifiers, who know nothing about weapons and strategies and are subservient to the giants, always ignore the human factor, which is particularly important when defending one’s own land from invaders. As the Ukrainians and the Lebanese have demonstrated.

The human factor should never be underestimated.

Ultime

Italia, Europa, Rivoluzione!

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